The Five Biggest Problems in the World, Reconsidered

Among all of my blogs, the one I posted to Cliffhanger on 2006 July 26, entitled "The Five Biggest Problems in the World Today" has received more comments than any other blog I have made. Apparently people are interested in world problems, and I think it is good, because that means that there is some hope for the world after all. The problems I listed were:

1. Peak Oil
2. Global Warming
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of Mainline Religions
5. Discrimination

The most recent call, from AndimsoNice, accused me of watching too much CNN. I certainly did not get Peak Oil from CNN. You still get little about this major problem in the news media, even though oil prices are $4 a gallon, the airlines are having major problems, and there are food and fuel shortages throughout the globe. However, the three problems AndimsoNice mentioned are indeed serious ones, so let's consider them. Here they are:

1. Clean drinking water
2. Genocide
3. Food shortages (not foot shortages!)

1. Clean drinking water. Indeed many places in the world are experiencing fresh water shortages. Georgia, a state in the US, is one of these. Some of the lakes have almost gone dry recently from the shortage of water there. Water is a renewable resource, but only so far. After the population grows above a certain point, it consumes more water than can be made available by Nature, so then it becomes non-renewable. Also, water is non-renewable in places where it is scarce; in other words, the deserts. Cities such as Almaty, Phoenix, Timbuktu, and Urumqi are going to have serious problems in the future because hardly any water falls from the sky at these places. They have to rely on rivers or aquifers, which will dry up if population grows rapidly, as it is doing in Phoenix, and perhaps in Urumqi. Global warming caused by fossil fuel consumption is creating more desert and exacerbating the problem. I call this problem the Water Limit, rather than Peak Water, because we don't produce water; there can be no peak production. Another problem lies behind both Peak Oil and the Water Limit, and that is population growth. Ultimately, the human population will have to stop growing.

This problem is a serious one, and I really did not list it, but it does relate to Peak Oil and Global Warming.

2. Genocide. Why do certain people or tyrannical rulers want to kill entire populations or ethnic groups? I think it is because of this "we vs they" mentality. If people are dissatisfied with life, a tyrant can seize on this dissatisfaction and whip up hatred against another people, as Tutsis against Hutus or Germans against Jews. Religion makes the problem worse, as if people were houses, God would be an unoccupied property, and sooner or later, this tyrant will occupy that house and become God. Belief in one self and in those around you may be the best way to help combat genocide. Certainly if genocide exists, it needs to be wiped out, either by the victimized people or by others; for example, our troops should not be in Iraq and Afghanistan but in Myanmar and Sudan.

In any case, Peak Oil will make this problem worse, as people will say that we are running out of oil, so make sure we get it and not those barbarians over there. This problem is related to both Peak Oil and Discrimination, since committing genocide against a people is an extreme case of discriminating against them.

3. Food shortages. Population growth is strongly behind this one. If there are more mouths to feed, more land is needed to grow the food for them. Peak Oil is also strongly related to this problem. In fact, this may be one of the worst effects of Peak Oil. Food is grown for the world today in such bountiful places as Iowa and Brazil, but to grow this food requires oil to transport the food to where it is needed, to operate the farm machinery to grow the food, to make the fertilizer for the crop and so forth. About 90% of the cost of food nowadays is oil. And so food shortages will appear and get worse as oil production declines.

This problem is so related to Peak Oil that I include it as part of this problem.

So now I rank the problems of the world as follows:

1. Peak oil and Food Limits.
2. Global Climate Change and Water Problems
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of mainline religions
5. Discrimination and genocide

She's Real Fine, My $4.09

It's been a while since I blogged here, so I will do it now. What I see right now is a price of crude oil that keeps going up and up with seemingly no stop. The last time I saw it, on the Fourth of July, 2008, it was $145/barrel, or $3.45 a gallon. That is about the price of wholesale gasoline, and retail gasoline just recently hit $4.00 a gallon here in Virginia. That's right, $4 a gallon is here.

The national average is $4.09 a gallon. She's real fine, my $4.09, my $4.09. No, that wasn't what the Beach Boys meant when they sang their song about a hot rod car called a 409. That was back in the 1960s, when oil was plentiful, summers were endless, and were spent surfing at the beach and chasing all the girls, especially California girls. I looked up in Wikipedia to see just what a 409 was. I was not interested in beach music back in the early 1960s, and I could have cared less, and only know of the song because my brother played it all the time. I couldn't imagine it was a horse, despite the lyrics ("Giddy-ap, Giddy-ap, 409"). There was a brand of Chevrolet back then (i.e, not a hot rod but a schlock rod, like Mickey Mouse - that came from another song during those days) with a 409-cubic inch engine. That's 6.7 liters! Wow! My gas-guzzler Plymouth Voyager has at most a 3.0-liter. There was a Beach Boy mentality back then that said this would go forever.

We now know differently. There is only a finite amount of oil on this planet. Apparently there were 2 trillion barrels of oil in this planet, and 1 trillion has been pumped out. So therefore, a peak in production can be expected, and many analysts think it was somewhere between 2005-2008. The high price of oil and gasoline is causing Americans to cut back, but Indians and Chinese are still continuing to increase their use of oil. Now people are wondering when shortages will occur. I think they will not occur for some time. The shortages of the 1970s were caused by regulations on gasoline prices. There are none now, so instead prices will skyrocket. Those who have the last buck, instead of the last place in the gasoline line, will do without.

So what do we do? A mixture of developing new sources of energy, such as solar, wind, and batteries for cars, as well as conservation, is what will work in the long run. It is pointless to dig the ANWR, drill off-shore, or tear up Montana and Wyoming in search of oil for shale, since these are still non-renewable resources. We are already doing that. If it doesn't work we need to do something else.

And something else we need to do. I fear for what will happen if shortages develop and people have to do without. The Beach Boys sang about the 409; they have another song about a Thunderbird, which symbolizes our oil culture: "And with the radio blasting
Goes cruising just as fast as she can now, And she'll have fun fun fun 'til her daddy takes the t-bird away" When will Big Daddy Peak Oil take our fun away?

The Peak Oil Bomb Deal

OK, here is my deal. There are many indicators that are saying that we have passed the world production peak of oil, including the ever-rising price of oil, now at $121 a barrel, food shortages worldwide, high prices of food in the United States, and the increasing trouble with the airlines (although some of this is due to max airline capacity, hit in 2000 and again in 2004). This threatens the way we live and perhaps even world civilization. So are the US Presidential candidates talking about it? You would think they would.

The truth is that I have heard just about nothing from any of the three of them about peak oil. Not a word. Michael Moore is now talking about it, and I wish he would make a movie about it. But not the Presidential candidates. Barack Obama is pointing the right way by saying that a gas tax holiday won't help, but he has never talked about it directly. John McCain came within a hair's breath of mentioning it. He said that the Iraq War was fought because of oil. If he meant the second one, he is correct. However, all the pundits and hypermediots ganged up on him, and he was forced to recant and say that it was about weapons of mass destruction. John, you blew it. You really blew it. If you had maintained a peak oil stance, I would have voted for you.

But right now as it stands, I favor Barack Obama and will vote for him in November if he is on the ballot.

However, Presidential Candidates, I am throwing this deal at you. Kenneth Deffeyes said recently that "My only hope is that a candidate, who learns from private polls that he or she is behind, will drop the oil bomb into the debate." I will vote for whichever candidate drops the oil bomb into the debate. It doesn't matter whether it is Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, or even someone else, provided they are of a major party and have a chance of winning. If you start talking about peak oil, I will vote for you. Else I will vote for Obama or Clinton, whoever is running and hope for the best.

So there's the deal, Barack, Hillary, and John. What you do is up to you, but the world depends on it.

Obama Forced to Apologize

Yesterday my companion blog Beyond Opinion posted something called "Bitter, Indeed", in which it says that Barack's "bitter" comments don't matter at all and that Hillary was the pot calling the kettle black when she said that Obama was "elitist and out of touch", citing her high position and her ex-President husband. it seems that Obama made a mistake in calling Pennsylvanians bitter with belief in God and guns and wanting to do something about immigrants. This sounds funny. It seems like I am talking about myself, since I am the author of both Cliffhanger and Beyond Opinion.

But anyway, today I found someone who supports what Obama said, none other than peak oil blogger Jim Kunstler, author of the "Clusterf*ck Nation Chronicles" blog. In this blog, he said that Obama was brave enough to tell the truth about Pennsylvanians, and in fact about people in general. He agreed with Obama that "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them". He then said that the press and Hillary and others ganged up on him and forced him to apologize. Jim said that he should not have apologized and that he lost authority by so doing. That is important. Obama carries charismatic authority, and that is essential to his performance as a Crisis President the next few years. I hope he gets over being blasted by the media, by Republicans, and by other Democrats when he takes office. He needs to tell us a lesson.

This is the same one as Kunstler has been telling us all the time lately, namely that we must get away from driving cars so much and that we have to be prepared to live life dramatically different in the years ahead. Kunstler is thought of as a radical for saying these things, but what else can you conclude when you look at the oil and fossil fuel supply picture? Plus add in the credit crisis and retirement of baby boomers, as well as Iraq and Iran and you see where Kunstler gets the name of his blog.

Kunstler also says that Clinton is the pot calling the kettle black. Carville is a Clinton supporter. I got a request for funds from him today for the Democrats. I threw it out. No way. For Carville said the same things Obama said, in a more picturesque way, that Pennsylvania was a redneck sandwich, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the two pieces of bread and with Alabama meat (redneck meat - an interesting concept) in between. Kunstler also decries people not coming to the defense of Obama. Finally he concludes that the election and the serious problems of the future matter a lot more than whether a "cohort of Cheez Doodle addicted rural Pennsylvania morons prays out loud for God to shoot all the Mexicans." Jim makes them sound like idiots. Today's song, as William Faulkner says, may be that of an idiot full of sound and fury.

We may see some sound and fury soon.

It's Already Here, Jim Kunstler

In his Clusterfuck Nation Chronicles of 2008 March 31, Jim Kunstler comments on his ordeal with the world aviation system on a recent trip to the American West. He says that high fuel costs, caused by Peak Oil, are killing them, and they can't fire any more employees or gyp employees on their retirement benefits. He then says, "For now, they slump like war refugees in the blow-molded plastic seats, numb with fatigue, anxiety, and disappointment. But I wonder if there will be riots in the concourses sometime later this year."

Guess what, Jim? It's already happened! It happened at Buenos Aires, Argentina's Ezeiza Airport on 2008 January 12. MSNBC reported it. Just click on MSNBC you will see how frustrated passengers, stranded two days by a strike, revolt against the airport, destroying computers and other toys of the Communications Age. It even includes a video. It may be caused by a strike, but I suspect the strike was caused by reasons having to deal with Peak Oil, such as high demand and low supply. The union said the stranding was caused by overbooking, trying to cram more cash-paying passengers per plane. So here comes Peak Oil. This one's already happened.

Peak Coal in South Africa?

This week certainly was a roller-coaster on the stock market. Down 300, down another 300, then up 600, and now down 200. Gold went down in price during the week, but near the end, it suddenly jumped up to $913 an ounce, the highest I have ever seen it. With energy shares and more general shares going down, I wonder why gold would shoot up in price. I found out why today.

There is a shortage of coal in South Africa, as can be seen in many articles, including this one. This shortage has gotten so severe that the government is asking industries to cut back, and as a result all gold and platinum mining in South Africa has ended. So this explains the higher gold prices. But what about gold companies?

I checked a few that made up a gold fund that I have invested in. All mine from the Americas, Europe, or Australia, except Gold Fields, which is a South Africa company. All of the stocks went up today except Gold Fields, which went down.

But it makes me wonder about coal. People say that coal will last hundreds of years. I did a calculation recently and came up with 161 years, assuming linear growth rates. So why did this shortage occur? And will the rest of the world eventually be like South Africa? I hear recently that Virginia hit peak coal in 1996. So Virginia must be importing from other states. Will the world run out of coal soon?

So right now there are two reasons why gold investing is good: the current economic downturn and coal shortages in gold producing regions.

Stocks are Down because of OIL

Today, 2007 October 15, the major stock market averages were down. In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 108.28 to 13984.80; the NASDAQ was down 25.63 to 2780.05, and the S&P was down 13.09 to 1548.71. Why did the stock averages go down? The analysts on CNBC and other places have come up with a number of reasons. The financial stocks all went down, so therefore, they say, they caused the market downturn. We aren't out of the housing crisis yet. They are awaiting the Fed's next move. Earnings of companies are down. Bladada blah blah blah.

No, people. None of these are the reason why the stock market went down. If you will get your head out of all these mathematical models, computer programs, and analysis diagrams, and take a look at some real things, you will see the answer. Gold is real. It is element 79 with symbol Au. The Gold Bugs index (^HUI) was up 5.43 to 418.77, a 1.31% increase. Oil is real. You can never run out of money; you can just print more. But we can and are running out of oil. The AMEX Oil Index (^XOI) was up 15.43 to 1495.47, a 1.04% increase. Why? Because the dollar continues to sink. But more likely because oil continues to go up in price. It went up $2.44 or so today to $86.13, a new high, and only about 14 dollars removed from $100 a barrel.

Why? Oil stocks (meaning supplies) are down. The Energy department had expected them to go up. The International Energy Agency also reported a decline in world supply of oil. OPEC is saying that it will produce 110,000 fewer barrels this year than expected, when it expected a raise. World production of oil reached about 84 billion barrels a day in 2004, nearly a thousand barrels a second. Since then it has been holding steady. Four of the world's largest oil fields, namely Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Daqing in China, Burgan in Kuwait, and Cantarell in the Gulf of Campeche near Mexico, are starting to decline, some precipitously, as Cantarell, which furthermore got hit by two Category 5 hurricanes this year.

That's the reason why stocks fell. It is also the reason why gold and oil stocks went up, and why the price of oil is up. Our civilization is beginning to run out of cheap oil. To me it looks like prices are going to go up. At $86 a barrel, gasoline prices should be $3.02 in southern Virginia; instead they are around $2.55. There is nowhere to go but up for these prices. Further, especially if prices don't go up much, shortages could develop. And then there will be a big outcry. The outrage at being fooled on the supply of oil will more than exceed that of finding out that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.